In an article published by the AFR on 18 March 2025 titled “Overseas student numbers blow out to historic high,” the author highlights the surge in international student arrivals at a record high of 201,490 overseas students who entered Australia in February 2025.

However, the sensational headline fails to capture the full context of the overall trends. A deeper analysis of the data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveals a different narrative. While significant peaks in student arrivals are consistently observed in February and July, corresponding to university semester commencements, there is a broader trend of declining international student arrivals throughout most other months of 2024 and early 2025. This suggests that despite the notable spikes during commencement periods, external factors like immigration policy changes, global economic uncertainty, and visa processing delays have negatively impacted overall student inflows.

Phil Honeywood, Chief Executive of the International Education Association of Australia, noted the troubling decline, highlighting that student visa applications dropped by 30% in February compared to the previous year. More concerning are the disparities among education sectors: university enrolments from overseas fell by 20%, vocational education and training (VET) enrolments dropped by 42%, and English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) enrolments plummeted by a staggering 46% year-over-year according to the Department of Home Affairs.

The concerning downward trend in student enrolment, particularly in the private education sector, is evident. International students and education providers are major contributors to Australia’s economy and society, injecting billions into local businesses and services annually. They should not be unfairly blamed for broader societal issues like housing shortages and employment challenges. Policymakers and commentators must shift from sensationalism to developing sustainable and transparent policies aimed at strengthening Australia’s international education sector rather than compromising it.

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