What is happening in the international education space in Australia?

The rapid growth of the international education market has led to a highly competitive environment. Institutions, countries, and agents have capitalised on the demand for foreign qualifications, but the market is showing signs of strain. 

 

  1. A Frenzied Race to Beat the Clock

As the cap deadline looms, a chaotic rush is expected within the sector. Course prices will plummet as education agents scramble to lock in enrolments before the restrictions take effect. Agent commissions and bonuses will skyrocket as institutions compete to poach students, leading to chaotic new intakes in November and December 2024. This frenzy will mirror the well-known June rush, but on a more chaotic scale.

2. COEs Scarce, But Visas Easier to Secure

While securing a COE will become increasingly competitive, visa approvals are predicted to become easier. The power dynamics will shift in favor of the colleges, with agents left to fight over the remaining COEs.

3. Escalating Course Prices

As the number of available COEs dwindles, course fees will inevitably rise. Wealthier students from South Asia are expected to swoop in, securing these increasingly scarce enrolment opportunities. The days of affordable Australian education will quickly fade as institutions raise fees to capitalise on the limited supply.

4. Extended Course Durations: The New Normal

In response to limited COEs, providers are likely to extend course durations. Two-year VET programs could expand to three years, as institutions aim to maximse profit and retention under the new enrolment caps.

5. Plummeting Agent Commissions

The era of lucrative commissions for agents will come to an abrupt end. The fierce competition among agents to secure COEs will erode commission structures, leaving smaller agencies especially vulnerable to financial strain.

6. B2B Partnerships Under Strain

As COEs become more coveted, commission splits will tighten, with 50:50 arrangements becoming the norm. Smaller agents will need to secure direct partnerships with providers or risk being pushed out of the market.

7. Colleges Will Downsize to Survive

To adapt to these new conditions, colleges will reduce class sizes, consolidate resources, and even trade students between institutions. Downsizing may become a survival tactic as the sector navigates this seismic shift.

8. Direct Recruitment on the Rise

Education agents could soon find themselves sidelined, as colleges turn to registered migration agents with lower fees to handle recruitment. The dominance of education agents is expected to wane in favor of more cost-effective recruitment methods.

9. Marketing Teams Face Cutbacks

With limited COEs, the need for aggressive marketing will decline. Marketing departments, once vital to student recruitment efforts, will be scaled back, as colleges focus on managing a product with restricted availability.

10. College Closures Could Become Commonplace

The strain of managing limited COEs may push some institutions into voluntary administration. Other colleges will downsize and brace for the long-term effects of the economic downturn, hoping to weather the storm until the next growth cycle.

11. Digital Delivery: A Silver Lining Amidst the Crisis

One potential positive outcome of these changes is a shift toward digital delivery. Many colleges are likely to pivot to online and hybrid models, delivering theory-based content globally while maintaining in-person practical training. This innovation could reshape the future of Australian education, helping colleges offset their financial losses.

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